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SUGIHARA, GEORGE

Professor

Degrees:

• B.S., University of Michigan
• M.S., Princeton University, New Jersey
• Ph.D., Princeton University, New Jersey

Research Interests:

• Developing derivatives markets and by-catch avoidance incentives for fisheries
• Systemic risk in the financial sector
• Market mechanisms for marine conservation
• Complexity theory
• Nonlinear dynamics
• Landscape ecology
• Food-web structure
• Species abundance patterns
• Conservation biology/biological control
• Neuroscience and behavior
• Cardiology
• Empirical climate modeling
• Fisheries forecasting
• Quantitative finance

Courses Recently Taught:

• SIO 276: Quant Theory/Population&Commun
• SIO 276L: Quantitative Ecology Proj Lab
• SIO276: Quant Theory/Population&Commun
• SIO276L: Quantitative Ecology Proj Lab
• SIO279: Sp Top/Biological Oceanography

Honors and Awards:

• McQuown Chair Professor of Natural Science, SIO, 2007.
• Appointed Member, Board on Mathematical Sciences and it's Applications (National Academy of Sciences/ National Research Council), 2007-2009. Reappointed (2009-2011)
• Visiting Fellow (elected), Merton College, Oxford University, 2002.
• 20th Century Distinguished Service Award, 2000.
• Distinguished Statistical Ecologist Award (Trieste, Italy), 1999.
• Managing Director Deutsche Bank Securities. Head of Global Quantitative Proprietary Trading, 1996-2000.
• John Dove Isaacs Chair Professor of Natural Philosophy, 1990-1995.
• JSPS Fellow, Japan, 1984.
• Eugene P. Wigner Prize, Oak Ridge National Lab, 1983.
• Ogden Porter Jacobus Prize, Princeton University Graduate School highest academic honor, 1982.
• Chaired panel on systemic risk, NY Federal Reserve Bank and National Academy of Sciences. (with Tim Geithner). 2006.
• (Also, see "Professional Services" tab)

Mentoring:

• Deyle, Ethan (Graduate; 2009-)
• Fissel, Benjamin (Graduate; 2009-)
• Hinke, Jefferson (Graduate; 2009-)
• Cape, Mattias (Graduate; 2008-)
• Gilbert, Benjamin (Graduate; 2008-)
• Glaser, Sarah (Post Doc; 2008-)
• Martin, Summer (Graduate; 2008-)
• Sugeno, Masatoshi (Graduate; 2008-)
• Terrazo, Jennifer (Undergrad; 2008-)
• Ye, Hao (Graduate; 2008-)
• Smigelski, Jeffrey (Graduate; 2007-)
• Wilman, Hamish (Graduate; 2007-)
• Anderson, Christian (Graduate; 2006-2008)
• Chappell, Steven (Masters; 2006-2007)
• Dakos, Vasillis (Masters; 2006-2006)
• Hull, Pincelli (Graduate; 2006-)
• McClenachan, Loren (Graduate; 2006-2009)
• Kenedy, Clara (Masters; 2005-2006)
• Newman, Mara (Graduate; 2005-2008)
• Stein, Gregory (Masters; 2005-2006)
• Welborn, Robert (Masters; 2005-2006)
• Glasser, Sarah (Graduate; 2003-2008)
• Goldberg, Emma (Graduate; 2003-2007)
• Hsieh, Chi-Hao (Graduate; 2002-2007)
• Loyd, Alun (Post Doc; 2002-2002)
• MacNamarra, Dylan (Graduate; 2002-2006)
• Melian, Carlos (Graduate; 2002-2006)
• Rhule, Henry (Graduate; 2002-2005)
• Wodarz, Dominic (Post Doc; 2002-2002)
• Wieszenski, Kasmir (Graduate; 2001-2003)
• Brown, Reggie (Post Doc; 1997-2001)
• Courchamp, Franck (Post Doc; 1996-1998)
• Bersier, Louis (Post Doc; 1995-1997)
• Casdagli, Martin (Graduate; 1995-1996)
• Dixon, Paul (Graduate; 1995-1999)
• Hobday, Alistair (Graduate; 1995-1999)
• Casdagli, Martin (Post Doc; 1994-1995)
• Anastapolis, Trakos (Graduate; 1993-1998)
• Beuamord, Antonio (Masters; 1991-1992)
• Martinez, Neo (Graduate; 1989-1990)
• Penner, Richard (Undergrad; 1989-1996)
• Palka, Deborah (Graduate; 1987-1993)
• Tynan, Cynthia (Graduate; 1987-1993)

2012. Sugihara G., R.M. May, H. Ye, C.H. Hsieh, E. Deyle, M. Fogarty, S. Munch. Detecting causation in complex ecosystems. Science Vol 338:496-500. Full text (with animation): Link to publication Nature Commentary by Mark Buchanan: Link to publication

2012. Liu H., M. Fogarty, S.M. Glaser, I. Altman, C.H. Hsieh, L. Kaufman, A. Rosenberg, G. Sugihara. Nonlinear dynamic features and co-predictability of the Georges Bank fish community. Marine Ecology Progress Series. Link to publication

2011. Sugihara G., John Beddington, Chih-hao Hsieh, Ethan Deyle, Michael Fogarty, Sarah M. Glaser, Roger Hewitt, Anne Hollowed, Robert M. May, Stephan B. Munch, Charles Perretti, Andrew A. Rosenbeg, Stuart Sandin, and Hao Ye. Are exploited fish populations stable? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 111: electronic pre-release available at Link to publication

2011. Deyle, E. and G. Sugihara. Generalized theorems for nonlinear state space reconstruction. . PLoS ONE 6(3): e18295. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0018295 Link to publication

2011. Glaser, S. M., H. Ye, M. N. Maunder, A. D. MacCall, M. Fogarty, and G. Sugihara. Detecting and forecasting complex nonlinear dynamics in spatially-structured catch-per-unit-effort time series for North Pacific albacore (Thunnus alalunga). Canadian Journal of Fisheris and Aquatic Sciences. Vol 68:400-412. Link to publication

2011. Sugihara, G. On early warning signs. Global Reset. SEED Magazine, January. Link to publication

2010. Sugihara, G. Nature is nonlinear. Biodiversity. Kyoto Journal. 75: 56. Link to publication

2010. Tsonis A. A., L.K. Swanson, G. Sugihara and P. A. Tsonis. Climate change and the demise of Minoan civilization. Clim. Past, 6: 525-530. doi:10.5194. Link to publication

2010. Sugihara, G. On early warning signs. Global Reset. SEED Magazine, January. 60-65. Link to publication

2009. Swanson L. K., G. Sugihara and A. Tsonis. Long-term natural variability and 20th century climate change. PNAS. September 22 v 106 no.38: 16120-16130. Link to publication

2009. Scheffer M,J Bascompte, WA Brock, V Brovkin, S R Carpenter, V Dakos, H Held, E H van Ness, M Rietkerk, and G Sugihara. Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature vol 461: 53-59. Link to publication

2009. Sugihara, G., and H. Ye. Cooperative Network Dynamics. Nature 458, 979-980. Link to publication

2009. Hsieh, C.H., H.J. Kim, W. Watson, E. Di Lorenzo and G. Sugihara. Climate driven changes in abundance and distribution of larvae of oceanic fishes in the southern California region. Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486. Link to publication

2009. Kilick, A., G. Sugihara, C.N.K. Anderson, J.P. Rozelot, H. Ye, A. Ozuc. Nonlinear prediction of solar cycle 24. Astrophysical Journal 693 (2009) 1173-1177. Link to publication

2009. Sugihara, G., and H. Ye. Reducing Chinook salmon bycatch with market-based incentives: individual tradable encounter credits (ITEC). A recommended approach for an industry market-incentive plan. Report and Testimony to the North Pacific Fishery Council (February 2009). Link to publication

2009. Fagre D.B., Charles C.W., Allen C.D., Birkeland C., Chapin F.S. III, Groffman P.M., Guntenspergen G.R., Knapp A.K., McGuire A.D., Mulholland P.J., Peters D.P.C., Roby D.D., and Sugihara G. Thresholds of climate change in ecosystems. Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.2 (SAP 4.2) USGS, Dept. of Interior, D.C. Link to publication

2008. Anderson, C., C.H. Hsieh, S. Sandin, R. Hewitt, A. Hollowed, J. Beddington, R.M. May, and G. Sugihara. Why fishing magnifies fluctuations in fish abundance. Nature 452: 835-839. Link to publication

2008. Hsieh, C.H., C.S. Reiss, R.P. Hewitt and G. Sugihara. Spatial analysis shows fishing enhances the climatic sensitivity of marine fishes. Canadian Journal of Fisheries 65: 947-961. Link to publication

2008. Hsieh, C.H., C. Anderson, and G. Sugihara. Extending nonlinear analysis to short ecological time series. American Naturalist 171: 71-80. Link to publication

2008. May, R.M., S.A. Levin, and G. Sugihara. Complex systems: Ecology for bankers. Nature 451: 893-895. Link to publication

2007. Sugihara, G. Tradable bycatch credits. 10 solutions to save the oceans. Conservation Magazine. Link to publication

2007. Maye, A., C.H. Hsieh, G. Sugihara, and B. Brembs. Order in spontaneous behavior. PLoS ONE 2: e443. (“fruit flies and free will”) Link to publication

2007. May, R.M., M.J. Crawley, and G. Sugihara. Patterns in multispecies communities. in: Theoretical Ecology (3rd ed), eds. R.M. May and A. McLean, Oxford University Press. pgs. 111-131. Link to publication

2006. Sugihara, G. Summary notes for the final panel discussion: Observations on new directions for understanding systemic risk in the financial sector. Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the National Academy of Sciences (rapportuer summary). Link to publication

2006. Southwood, T.R., R.M. May, and G. Sugihara. Observations on related ecological exponents. PNAS 103: 6931-6933. Link to publication

2006. Hsieh, C.H., C.S. Reiss, J.R. Hunter, J.R. Beddington, R.M. May, and G. Sugihara. Fishing elevates variability in the abundance of exploited species. Nature 443: 859-862. Link to publication

2005. Hsieh C.H., C. Reiss, W. Watson, M.J. Allen, J.R. Hunter, R.N. Lea, R.H. Rosenblatt, P.E. Smith, and G. Sugihara. A comparison of long-term trends and variability in populations of larvae of exploited and unexploited fishes in the Southern California region: A community approach. Prog. Oceanography 67: 160-185. Link to publication

2005. Hsieh C.H., S.M. Glaser, A.J. Lucas, and G. Sugihara. Distinguishing random environmental fluctuations from ecological catastrophes for the North Pacific Ocean. Nature 435: 336-340. Link to publication

2005. Sala, E. and G. Sugihara. Food web theory provides guidelines for marine conservation. in: Aquatic Food Webs, eds. A. Belgrano et al. Oxford University Press. pgs 170-183. Link to publication

2003. Sugihara, G., L.F. Bersier, T.R. Southwood, S.L. Pimm, and R.M. May. Predicted correspondence between species abundances and dendrograms of niche similarities. PNAS 100: 5246-5251. Link to publication

2001. Dixon, P.A., M.J. Milicich, and G. Sugihara. Noise and nonlinearity in an ecological system. Nonlinear Dynamics and Statistics, ed. A.I. Mees. Birkhauser. pgs. 338-364. Link to publication

2000. Courchamp, F., M. Langlais, and G. Sugihara. Rabbits killing birds: Modelling the hyperpredation process. Journal of Animal Ecology 69: 154-164. Link to publication

1999. Sugihara G., M. Casdagli, E. Habjan, D. Hess, P. Dixon, and G. Holland. Residual delay maps unveil global patterns of atmospheric nonlinearity and produce improved local forecasts. PNAS 96: 210-215. Link to publication

1999. Dixon, P.A., M.J. Milicich, and G. Sugihara. Episodic fluctuations in larval supply. Science 283: 1528-1530. Link to publication

1999. Courchamp, F., M. Langlais, and G. Sugihara. Modelling the biological control of an alien predator to protect island species from extinction. Ecol. Applications 9: 112-123. Link to publication

1999. Courchamp, F., M. Langlais, and G. Sugihara. Control of rabbits to protect island birds from cat predation. Biological Conservation 89: 219-225. Link to publication

1999. Courchamp, F., M. Langlais, and G. Sugihara. Cats protecting birds: modelling the mesopredator release effect. Jour. Anim. Ecol. 68: 282-292. Link to publication

1999. Bersier, L.F. and G. Sugihara. Scale invariant or scale dependent behavior of the link density property in food webs: a matter of sampling effort? Amer. Natur. 153: 676-682. Link to publication

1998. Segundo, J.P., G, Sugihara, P. Dixon, M. Stiber, and L.F. Bersier. The spike trains of inhibited pacemaker neurons seen through the magnifying glass of nonlinear analysis. Neuroscience 87: 741-766. Link to publication

1997. Bersier, L.F. and G. Sugihara. Scaling regions for food web properties. PNAS 94:1247-1251. Link to publication

1997. Bersier, L.F. and G. Sugihara. Species abundance patterns: the problem of testing stochastic abundance models. Jour. Anim. Ecol. 66: 769-774. Link to publication

1997 Sugihara, G., L.F. Bersier, and K. Schoenly. The effects of taxonomic and trophic aggregation on foodweb properties. Oceologia 112: 272-284. Link to publication

1996. Bersier, L.F. and G. Sugihara. Scale invariance versus size dependence in food web properties. Rev. Suisse Zool. 103: 799.

1996. Bersier, L.F. and G. Sugihara. A correspondence between two classical notions of community structure. Rev. Suisse Zool. 102: 855.

1996. Hastings, H.M. and G. Sugihara. Fractale Ein Leitfaden Fur Anderwender Sperkrum Akademischer Verlag. 253 pages (updated German translation of earlier book).

1996. Sugihara, G., W. Allan, D. Sobel, and K.D. Allan. Nonlinear control of heart rate variability in human infants. PNAS 93: 2608-2613. Link to publication

1995. Sugihara, G. From out of the blue. Nature 378: 559-560. (1000 year Chinese locust record) Link to publication

1995. Sugihara, G. Prediction as a criterion for classifying natural time series, in: Chaos and Forecasting, ed. H. Tong, World Scientific, Singapore, pgs. 269-294.

1995. Dixon, P., A. Hobday, and G. Sugihara. Book Review: Fractals in Science. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 57: 939-941. Link to publication

1994. Sugihara, G. Nonlinear forecasting for the classification of natural time series. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 348: 477-495. Link to publication

1994. Sugihara, G. and A. Hobday. One thousand words = one milipicture. Trends in Ecology and Evolution. Link to publication

1993. Hastings, H.M. and G. Sugihara. Fractals: A User's Guide to the Natural Sciences. Oxford University Press. 248 pgs. (4 reprintings). Link to publication

1993. Yamasaki, H., G. Sugihara, and Kirkpartick. Is the photosynthetic process nonlinear? J. Plankton Research 15: 1297-1308. Link to publication

1991. Sugihara, G., and R.M. May. How predictable is chaos? Nature 355: 25-26. Link to publication

1990. Sugihara, G., Grenfell B., and R.M. May. Distinguishing error from chaos in ecological time series. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. London B 330: 235-251. Link to publication

1990. Sugihara, G., and R.M. May. Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series. Nature 344: 734-741. Link to publication

reprinted in: Nonlinear Physics for Beginners: Fractals, Chaos, Solitons, Pattern Formation, Cellular Automata, Complex Systems, ed. L. Lam. 1998. Link to publication

1990. Penner R., and G. Sugihara. Mathematics for biologists. Math Biosciences 101/2: 285-278.

1990. Sugihara, G., and R.M. May. Applications of fractals in ecology. Trends in Ecol. and Evol. 5(3): 79-86. Link to publication

1990. Sugihara, G. Some theoretical approaches to ecosystem assembly. Japan-U.S. ORNL Symp. Vol. Pgs 23-49.

1989. Sugihara, G. How do species divide resources? Amer. Natur. 133: 458-463. Link to publication

1989. Sugihara, G., K. Schoenly and A. Trombla. Scale invariance in food web properties. Science 245: 48-52. Link to publication

1988. O’Neil, R.V., J. Krummel, R. Gardner, G. Sugihara, B. Jackson, D. DeAngelis, B. Milne, M. Turner, B. Zygmut, W. Christiansen, V. Dale and R. Graham. Indicies of landscape pattern. J. Landscape Ecology 1: 153-162. Link to publication

1987. Sugihara, G. Hirata’s stability analysis defended. Int. Jour. Systems. Sci. 18(7): 1391-1393. Link to publication

1987. Krummel, J.R., R.V. O’Neill, and G. Sugihara. Landscape patterns in a disturbed environment. Oikos 48: 321-324. Link to publication

1986. Sugihara G. A necessary and sufficient assembly rule for real ecosystems. Intl. Symp. Math. Biol., Springer-Verlag, pp.53-59.

1986. Sugihara, G. Shuffled sticks: calculating nonrandom niche overlaps. Amer. Natur. 127: 554-560. Link to publication

1984. Krummel, J.R., G. Sugihara and R.V.O’Neil. Locational theory of animal populations. Oak Ridge National lab, Tech Rpt.

1984. Sugihara, G. Graph theory, homology and food webs. Proc. Symp. Applied Mathematics, American Mathematical Society: 83-101.

1984. Livdahl, T. and G. Sugihara. Nonlinear interactions of populations and the importance of estimating per capita rates of change. Jour. Anim. Ecol. 53: 573-580. Link to publication

1984. Ecosystem Dynamics. in: Exploitation of Marine Communities. Dahlem Konferenzen. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pgs. 131-153. Link to publication

1984. Sugihara, G. Graph theory, homology and food webs. In: American Mathematical Society: Lecture Notes in Biomathematics, ed. S.A. Levin. Link to publication

1983. Sugihara, G. Applications of fractals to landscape ecology. Oak Ridge National Lab.Tech Rpt.

1983. Sugihara, G. Peeling apart nature. Nature 304: 94. Link to publication

1983. Sugihara, G. Holes in niche space: A derived assembly rule and its relation to intervality. in: Current Trends in Food Web Theory. pgs 25-35.

1983. DeAngelis D.L., W.M. Post and G. Sugihara. Current Trends in Food Web Theory Report on a Food Web Workshop. ORNL-5983. 137 pgs.

1983. Sugihara, G. Derivation of a necessary and sufficient rule for the assembly of ecological systems. ISMB, Kyoto.

1983. Siegal A and G. Sugihara. Moments of particle size distributions resulting from sequential breakage. J. Appl. Probability 20: 158-164. Link to publication

1983. Sugihara, G. Minimal community structure: and explanation of species abundance patterns. Reprinted in the series “Benchmark Papers in Ecology,” ed. Frank B. Golley. Link to publication

1982. Sugihara, G. Commentary on diversity as a concept and its measurement Journal of the American Statistical Association 77: 564-565. Link to publication

1981. Sugihara, G. S=cAz, z-1/4: A reply to Connor and McCoy. Amer. Natur. Vol 117, No. 5. 790-793. Link to publication

1981. Sugihara, G. and K. Heston. Field notes on winter flocks of the oscillated turkey (Agriocharis ocellatta). The Auk 98: 395-398. Link to publication

1980. Sugihara, G. Minimal community structure: an explanation of species abundance patterns. Amer. Natur. 116: 770-787. Link to publication

1977. Sugihara, G. The ecological effects of major ions for the diatoms Thalassiosira pseudonana, Hale and Heimdahl , and Navicula Elkab, O. Muller. Michigan Academician 9: 345-356. Link to publication

1972. Sugihara, G. Anion responses for Cyclotella nana, Navicula Elkab and Cosicnodiscus rudolphi. Sea Grant Technical Report No. 33, eds E.C.Monohan and G.T. Kaye, 187-208.

SAMPLE PRESS ITEMS :

I. Recent:

*Nature Physics Commentary by Mark Buchanan (2012) Link to publication

*New Scientist (2012) (Received more than 800,000 page impressions) Revealed: The capitalist network that runs the world Link to publication

* Union Tribune (2011) Sunday. Steve Chappell’s Intellectual Capital Series: Link to publication

* Fox TV News Interview (2011): Link to publication

* PBS radio show All Things Considered, popular media, NSF News (2009): Link to publication

* The Economist (2009): Link to publication

* Scientific American (2009): Link to publication

* Yukon News (2009): Link to publication

* Christian Science Monitor (2009) Link to publication

* Seed Magazine (2009): Link to publication

*Financial Times (2009): Link to publication

* Workstyles Magazine (2009): Link to publication

* Wired (2009): Link to publication

*US News (2009): Link to publication

II. Profiles:

* Nature News Feature: Fishy Futures (September 2005) Link to publication

* Scientific American Profile: Chaotic Catches (Feb 2009) Link to publication

III. Systemic Risk, Finance and Catastrophic Change

* PBS radio show All Things Considered, popular media, Link to publication

* NSF News (2009): Link to publication

* Nature: Ecology for Bankers (2008) Link to publication

* Economist: (Jan 2009) Link to publication

* Seed Magazine (April 2009): Link to publication

*Financial Times (April 2009): Link to publication

* Workstyles Magazine (June 2009): Link to publication

* Wired (September 2009): Link to publication

*US News (September 2009): Link to publication

*NSF News (2009) (Cheryl Dybas) Link to publication

* SIO News (2005): Nonlinearity and the potential for catastrophic change Link to publication

IV. Drosophila Behavior: Free-Will vs. Determinism (2007)

* New Scientist – Fruit flies display rudimentary free will. Link to publication

* Nature – Do flies have free will? Link to publication

* MSNBC - Study hints that fruit flies have free will Link to publication

* Panda’s Thumb – Of Flies and Free Will Link to publication

V. Fisheries

*Inter Press Service: (2010) Link to publication

*Science Daily: (2008) Link to publication

*UC Newsroom: (2008) Link to publication

* NSF News: (October 18, 2006) Long-term ocean data confirm fishing puts species in "Double Jeopardy" Link to publication

* United Press International (October 18, 2006) Fishing study suggests strategy change to make the remaining fish less vulnerable to environmental change. Link to publication

* Cosmos Australia: Link to publication

* National Geographic: (October 18, 2006) Link to publication

* Union Tribune Editorial: (October 29, 2006) Link to publication